After you think about art and science in decision-making for a while, it can be addictive. I can’t even shoot arrows in my back yard without thinking about it. Continue reading
Tag Archives: sales forecasting
Take Me Out To The Ballgame
It’s hard to miss the similarity between baseball and site selection, right?
“That store is a home run.”
“We’re going to have to step up to the plate and do the deal.”
“She threw me a curve ball with that percentage rent clause.”
“We’re going to have to knock it out of the park to catch up to our competiton.” Continue reading
The Pendulum Swings: from Right Brain to Left Brain to…Whole Brain?
What’s worse? Too little science or too much science?
Ahh, trick question. The answer is that science is not a quantity that can be measured and compared to a standard. Most people would agree with this, but we often hear people say “we need a little more science in our site selection process.” Continue reading
How Can We Make Better Real Estate Decisions?
All of us in the chain store industry would love to believe that we are making better real estate decisions today than before we had digitial maps, demographic data, and predictive models. There is no question that some companies have reduced capital losses from store closings and increased profitability of their stores with these tools. Continue reading
The KISS of Death
Most chain store modeling experts will tell you that a “good” sales forecasting model will estimate sales +/- 20% in 80-90% of the cases.
Most chain store real estate dealmakers believe that they need a model with no more than +/- 15% error 85% of the time.
Most people don’t agree on how this error is measured or what the role of human judgment should be in determining the “official” sales estimate used in calculating the projected return on investment. Continue reading
Welcome to Chain Store Advisors!
It’s been 17 years since I started the company that became geoVue. That’s a lot of 70 hour weeks with not enough vacation.
It’s been 17 weeks since geoVue was sold to a new owner. That’s a lot of time to think about the last 17 years and gain some perspective on the quest for good practices in real estate planning and site selection.
I’ve decided to spend the foreseeable future using what I’ve learned to help guide chain store operators in making better real estate investment decisions. The focus of this work will be “connecting art and science,” which sums up the greatest need that I have seen among retailers, restaurants, and service companies in building a profitable network of stores. There are many good people and many good technologies being used by companies today. However, they often fail to deliver their potential because they are not integrated properly. Continue reading